Drone from Syria approaches Israel, intercepted by Patriot missile

Drone from Syria approaches Israel, intercepted by Patriot missile

Most dangerously that this admission of the military solution failure will approve the geographical distribution of Syria among various foreign forces (Russia, US, Iran, Turkey). All these reflect the arrangements for the near future in order to impose a fait accompli despite the global agreement which is expected later.

Like the rest of the region, Israel underestimated in the beginning the Iranian infiltration in Syria. It thought that the civil war served its interests - a sectarian swamp that would involve Hezbollah and Iranian forces against Daesh, and they all must have lost a significant number of their forces and fighters during the past three years.

Perhaps even more worrying for Israel, Iran's increasing presence in southern Syria offers Tehran the opportunity to position either its own troops or fighters from Hezbollah or other Shiite militias who could strike directly at the Jewish state. That is why the new Israeli threats are against Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria. It fears Iran could use Syrian territory to stage attacks on Israel, or to create a land corridor from Iran to Lebanon that could allow it to transfer weapons more easily to Hezbollah.

In the Syrian file, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of the new reality, saying that "when ISIS is expelled from a place, Iran is replacing it". Jordan also faces the danger of the Iranian march toward its borders with the city of Daraa, had it not been for the American warnings.

The reports on the new ceasefire agreement came after the BBC published satellite photos on Friday said to show the construction of a permanent Iranian military base in Syria.

"There is no military solution to the conflict in Syria", according to the statement. If it hadn't been for the Russian air support, the Iranian militias wouldn't have expanded and wouldn't have survived defeat.

This is the reality which I do not know how the agreement to end the war in Syria will handle.

This article is also available in Arabic. A veteran and internationally acclaimed journalist, he is a former editor-in-chief of the London-based leading Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, where he still regularly writes a political column.